Immediately after the US markets close, at around 10:00 p.m. Italian time, SpaceX’s first quarterly results as a publicly traded company will be released. The group led by Elon Musk is trading below its IPO launch price ($114 versus $135 at launch), and because it is involved in the AI cycle, even those who have not invested directly in the stock will be following the quarterly results closely.
For those who want to follow the quarterly results with a proper understanding of the issues, we have prepared a complete report to help frame which results should be considered positive and which, instead, negative. In the meantime, ARK funds have continued buying up the stock at any price, with no regard for the downward trend.
A premise: judging SpaceX is very difficult
Assessing SpaceX is very difficult. This is because the company incorporates several divisions operating in separate and unrelated markets:
- Space launches, SpaceX’s core business;
- Connectivity, through Starlink;
- AI, through xAI, which also includes the social network X.
We discussed the substance of SpaceX in one of our recent videos on YouTube, which you can watch here. In 10 minutes, it covers everything you need to know about the company’s structure.
Growth will not be the focus
The most important aspect of the quarterly results to be published after the market close today, August 4, will perhaps not be revenue. The figures are unlikely to have changed much from the data the group submitted to the SEC before the listing. In any case, this is not the aspect that most interests investors in the stock or those generally following the equity market.
| Q1 2026 | Data |
|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.69bn |
| Operating loss | $1.94bn |
| Net loss | $4.28bn |
| Starlink subscriptions | 10.3 million |
| Starlink satellites | approximately 9,600 |
| Consensus | |
|---|---|
| Consolidated revenue | $6.93bn |
| EBIT loss | $1.55bn |
| Connectivity revenue | $3.82bn |
| Connectivity operating profit | $1.42bn |
| AI revenue | $2.33bn |
| Space revenue | $871m |
| Space operating loss | $773m |
| Total capex | approximately $14.05bn |
| AI capex | approximately $10.2bn |
Attention will turn to Starlink, which is something of the company’s cash machine. However, the main focus will be on spending on artificial intelligence investments. Even bears such as Morningstar consider the AI business line the key to the future of the business. In other words, if explosive growth is to come to SpaceX, it can only come from the AI segment.
Capex
The real question will be how much SpaceX expects the capex allocated to expanding artificial intelligence to cost, including in the short term. This figure, however, will have to be considered in relation to how much the group already generates from this segment. Since the listing, agreements have been reached to lease computing power to major companies in the AI sector. Those figures will be interesting to examine.
The Starship unknown
Although these are separate business lines on paper, it is perhaps unnecessary to point out that Elon Musk needs all three to function for his future projects. The most ambitious is the launch of data centers into orbit.
To make such a project possible, Starship will have to evolve and ensure launches that are even cheaper and more reliable. In this regard, the guidance provided by Elon Musk’s companies has always been… out of this world, in the sense that it has been marked by a certain degree of optimism. It remains to be seen whether the markets will believe him.
For further details: Alex Lavarello’s analysis of Musk’s companies is available here.
