The semiconductor sector remains the major protagonist of 2026, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up +59.31% since the start of the year. Within this rally, Nvidia has gained just +11.02%—a wide gap that the industry’s figures help explain. The quarterly results published yesterday evening after the markets closed brought record revenue and a 2028 projection capable of surprising even analysts.
For Nvidia, a Quarter Above Expectations
Nvidia closed its second fiscal quarter with revenue of $96.2 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of $91.9 billion. Revenue growth was +106% compared with the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share, meaning profit per share excluding extraordinary items, rose to $2.22, more than doubling in 12 months. Gross margin, the share of revenue remaining after production costs, held at 75%.
The engine remains the data center division, which generated $89 billion in revenue, an increase of +117%, and accounts for 92% of total sales. For the current quarter, the company expects revenue of $108 billion, above estimates of $104.2 billion.
Nvidia’s Massive 2028 Projection
The real news came during the analyst conference that followed the release of the results. Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress indicated revenue growth of +70% for fiscal 2028. The consensus, meaning the average of analysts’ estimates, stood at around +44%. The company specified that the estimate is constrained by supply, because customer demand is far higher than available production capacity. The order book already accumulated exceeds $2 trillion. Investments by major cloud operators are expected to exceed $800 billion this year and approach $1.3 trillion in 2027.
Nvidia Trails the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index
The comparison with the sector is one of the paradoxes of 2026. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), the basket of the 30 leading U.S. chip companies, is up +59.31% since the start of the year, as shown in the chart. Over the same period, Nvidia has risen +11.02%, or less than one-fifth of the sector’s gain. The actual gap is even wider, because Nvidia is one of the index’s largest components and weighs on its overall performance. The short-term picture nevertheless remains volatile across the entire sector.
The Chip Sector’s Rally
Memory manufacturers have driven the index higher. Micron is up +197.51% since the start of the year, while Western Digital follows with a gain of +149.80%, with both companies benefiting from the surge in component prices. ASML has advanced +50% and Taiwan Semiconductor +30.69%, while Broadcom has posted a modest +2.29%. This year, the market has rewarded bottlenecks in the supply chain more than the designer of GPUs, the graphics processors at the foundation of artificial intelligence systems. Yesterday, Nvidia itself identified memory as the main constraint on growth next year.
What to Expect from Nvidia Today
Yesterday, Nvidia closed at $209.66, down ahead of the release of its results. After the figures were published, the stock initially retraced before reversing course. Today, it is up approximately +6% in pre-market trading at $222, signaling the market’s appreciation of the results and guidance.
From a technical perspective, to confirm this bullish setup, Nvidia would need to break above the short-term resistance at $217, potentially clearing the way for a further move toward its all-time highs.
