Precious metals are once again attracting attention after months of deep correction and near-total investor disinterest. Gold has returned to positive territory since the beginning of 2026, surprising those who had quickly written it off after its decline from the January ATH of $5,626 per ounce. However, the picture remains far from uniform, as precious metals are following very different trajectories.
Gold surprises those who had already written it off
Gold closed last week up +7.13%, its best performance since January. With this move, it reached a seven-week high. It is currently trading at $4,400, and the recovery has brought the future back into positive territory since the beginning of 2026, with a gain of +1.35%. On a monthly basis, the gain rises to +6.37%, with most of the move occurring in the latest sessions.
Silver remains behind but is moving with greater force
Silver, on the other hand, is the true laggard, remaining down -10.14% since the beginning of the year. However, it is reacting more intensely than gold during this recovery phase. The August performance clearly demonstrates this, with a gain of +9.55% compared with gold’s +6.37%. This is typical of silver, which amplifies moves in both directions. Attached is an overview of their performance since the beginning of 2026.
At current prices, however, both remain well below their all-time highs. Gold is down approximately 21.85%, while silver has recorded a larger decline. From its ATH of $120.79 per ounce to its current price of $64.21, the decline is -47.25%.
Gold consolidates below resistance
The weekly chart provides an overview of gold’s price performance from last summer, showing the bullish acceleration that began in August and drove gold into an almost uninterrupted upward leg, reaching its ATH of $5,626 per ounce at the end of January 2026.
After the long rally came a phase of sharp correction, followed by a resumption of the uptrend and a new decline in March after the outbreak of the Iran-US conflict. The decline pushed the price of gold down to a low of $3,955 in June, stopping just above the first vector support at $3,870.
From there, the market entered a sideways phase that lasted until last week’s acceleration. Gold is now in contact with the resistance of the short-term vector, which runs around $4,440, where it is currently pausing. A breakout could then lead toward the first significant resistance around $4,600, while the main resistance is at $4,800.
What is driving the price? Oil matters more than the Fed
The driver of the rebound is not expectations of a rate cut, as many tend to take for granted. Instead, the market is pricing in the opposite possibility: a potential Federal Reserve rate hike at its September meeting. What has changed the balance is oil, which fell after the opening of a negotiating channel between the United States and Iran.
Weaker crude oil cools inflation concerns and reduces the probability of monetary tightening. It is precisely on this development that gold has resumed its rise, without requiring any dovish shift.
Commerzbank analysts link the Fed’s September rate decision exclusively to the performance of consumer prices (CPI) in the United States on August 12. According to the German bank, the Fed will forgo a rate hike only if inflation has genuinely begun to decline. However, the decline will also have to continue in August; otherwise, the scenario will change again. A hotter-than-expected inflation reading would quickly push the probability of tightening higher, reversing the current move in precious metals.
