The copper price, after reaching a record high and rallying, is correcting. Expectations surrounding U.S. tariffs, inventories and AI-driven demand are influencing the outlook. Individual mining stocks are performing better.
The copper price on the New York COMEX hit a new all-time high of $6.8940 per pound last week. A rapid decline followed, pushing prices down 5% on a daily basis. The decline continued in a more orderly fashion, and copper has recovered in recent sessions, trading at $6.510, while its gain since the start of 2026 remains +14.15%.
The copper market between record highs and waiting for tariffs that have yet to arrive
The rally of recent weeks was based on expectations of a U.S. tariff on refined copper, meaning metal that has already been processed and is ready for industrial use. The Department of Commerce was due to decide by June 30, 2026, whether to impose a 15% tariff, but the deadline passed without any announcement. Market participants continued to ship copper to U.S. warehouses, betting on higher domestic prices once the tariff took effect. The scenario began to deteriorate when Reuters reported that the White House had not yet reached a decision, as it weighs the costs for industry against domestic production.
The copper retracement
The weekly chart helps measure the recent slide by comparing it with the corrections copper has experienced from 2022 to the present. The declines highlighted on the chart range from -7.19% to -23.33% in July 2025, when tariffs again played a decisive role. In that case, refined copper was excluded from the tariffs.
This time, the copper price fell from $6.8940 to $6.3445 after weeks of almost uninterrupted gains. Over the past 12 months, copper has retained a gain of +33.90%, while its monthly performance still shows a decline of -2.80%. The support that the copper futures contract must hold is around $6.060 per pound.
Copper feels the pressure from London and artificial intelligence
London is also contributing to the pressure on copper, as inventories in the warehouses of the London Metal Exchange, the British metals exchange, continue to rise. The three-month contract is trading above the spot delivery price, a structure known as contango that signals abundant supply in the market.
Sentiment is also being affected by a call from Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, to slow the development of artificial intelligence, a position shared by OpenAI’s Sam Altman. According to ING, the Dutch bank, that appeal has weighed on technology stocks and copper because of concerns about new data centers. ING nevertheless believes that constraints on mining production will continue to support copper prices.
Copper mining stocks outperform the metal since the start of the year
Since the start of 2026, copper has gained +14.15%, ranking second among metals behind aluminum, which has gained +15.91%. Far behind is gold, showing a gain of just +1.11%, while silver, platinum and palladium remain in negative territory.
Copper mining companies have outperformed the metal itself, with gains exceeding +30% in several cases, as shown in the accompanying chart.
Taseko Mines leads the performance with +44.33%, ahead of Teck Resources at +36.37% and Freeport-McMoRan, one of the largest publicly listed copper producers, at +33.60%. The chart shows that all the stocks are contracting from their annual peak at the end of August.
They are followed by Southern Copper at +31.30% and Hudbay Minerals at +27.25%, while Ero Copper has gained +13.54%. The performance of the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX), which includes more than forty mining companies from around the world, is even weaker. COPX is up +8.09%, because no individual holding has gained much more than 5% and the strongest advances are diluted.
