Only official confirmation is missing. Although Anthropic executives continue to say that a secret filing with the SEC is merely an option, an open door, or a possibility, the markets are now pricing in the company’s stock market listing by the end of October as almost certain. It would be the second giant AI-related IPO of the year, after SpaceX.

On Polymarket, the probability of a listing by October 31 is priced at 74%. Although it is a relatively illiquid market, it is still a sign that many now expect an IPO that may be even more anticipated than SpaceX’s.

Why go public if you have the money?

Anthropic does not have any major issues in terms of available liquidity. Nor would it have difficulty raising capital if it needed to. So why go public? Because it is also a service offered to those who invested when the company was worth one-tenth or one-hundredth of what it is worth today and would like, at least in part, to enjoy the fruits of their prudence.

At least in part, we would be looking at a situation similar to that of SpaceX: companies of this stature go public after raising an enormous amount of private capital, when their market capitalization is already very high.

For Anthropic, the valuation could approach $1 trillion, in a launch that would rank second only to SpaceX’s in stock market history.

Good news for miners too?

The name Anthropic is now one that everyone wants to associate themselves with. Riot confirmed an agreement yesterday—which subsequently turned out to be with Anthropic—that was enough to drive the stock up 25% in after-hours trading.

The low-cost energy sector—which also includes miners—is riding the wave. And if the stock market’s response to the SpaceX IPO is also positive, it may become possible to assess whether a continuation of what has already been an extraordinary season for many is taking shape.

By going public in October, Anthropic would also have the advantage of arriving before OpenAI, which, according to the latest reports, is said to have postponed the entire process because of adverse market conditions—and, according to detractors, because its financial results are not exactly impressive.

In all likelihood, we will know more shortly, since preparations for a stock market listing take time in any case.